Week 8 NFL Lock Picks

Week 7 NFL Lock Picks

My Week 7 NFL locks picks will answer more than what this week’s smart bets are.

Can Aaron Rodgers and Green Bay bounce back from a terrible loss to Dallas against rival Chicago on Thursday? How will Baltimore do facing the New York Jets? What will happen when Pittsburgh hosts New England on Sunday?

Week 7 NFL Lock Picks

Chicago at Green Bay
When:  Thursday, Oct. 20 at 8:30 pm ET
Where: Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI
Odds: Chicago +9

Analysis: The problem with taking Green Bay at +9 is counting on QB Aaron Rogers. Yes, I just wrote that. One of the preseason NFL MVP favorites has been anything but an NFL MVP. He seems awfully distracted on the football field. Maybe, his heart isn’t in this game anymore.

He was terrible versus the Dallas Cowboys in Green Bay’s 16 to 30 loss this past Sunday. Rodgers threw an interception. He also had a fumble on a QB sneak for a TD in the second half. That turnover pretty much cost the Packers the game.

Chicago’s defense held Jacksonville to 54 rushing yards from 20 carries and 263 passing yards. Even though the Bears lost 16 to 17, the defense has finally come around at Soldier Field. Coach John Fox is going to find ways to frustrate Rodgers.

I like Chicago to easily cover the spread in this game.

Pick: Chicago

Baltimore at NY Jets
When:  Sunday, Oct. 23 at 1:00 pm ET
Where: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ
Odds: Even

Analysis: The Jets play the Cardinals on Monday Night. Even if they get pummeled, which could happen, and end up as a slight dog on the against the spread line in this Sunday’s battle, I’m not worried. I’m going with Baltimore not matter what the Jets do versus Arizona on Monday.

Baltimore’s defense got taken to school by Eli Manning and Odell Beckham Jr. this past Sunday. Odell caught 8 of 10 Manning targets for 222 yards and 2 touchdowns. He was unbelievable. Baltimore definitely has trouble stopping the pass. That’s why they lost 23 to 27 to the Giants.

Luckily for the Ravens, the Jets are a rush first team. I would make my team rush first as well if my two quarterbacks were Ryan Fitzpatrick and Geno Smith. Not only that, but the Jets’ pass defense is terrible.

I like Baltimore to cover the spread…no matter what it ends up being.  

Pick: Baltimore

New England at Pittsburgh
When:  Sunday, Oct. 23 at 4:25 pm ET
Where: Heinz Field, Pittsburgh, PA
Odds: New England -7.5

Analysis: With confirmation coming Monday morning that Pitt QB Ben Roethlisberger won’t play in this game, bettors have jumped on New England. The Patriots went from a -3 road favorite to a -7.5 road favorite. From my perspective, that’s sort of crazy.

I know that New England has looked like world beaters this season. But Pittsburgh goes into this game hungry. The Steelers don’t often lose two games in a row and Miami absolutely embarrassed Pitt 30 to 15 on October 16.

I do feel that pro bettors get involved later this week. Pittsburgh should be a 5-point dog at the most. I think they beat New England straight up in this game since nobody can stop RB Le’Veon Bell while backup QB Landry Jones has an entire week to prepare.

Pitt wins this. 

Pick: Pittsburgh

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