Week 7 NFL Over/Under Picks

Week 7 NFL Over/Under Picks

A lot of times when I am making my picks I overlook that there is tremendous value in betting the Over or Under on NFL game totals. In many cases picking the betting Over/Under is less complicated than picking an ATS winner. In Week 8 of NFL action I have picked 3 game total that you should bet the Over/Under on. Happy hunting.

Week 7 NFL Over/Under Picks

Will the New York Giants and Los Angeles play to a low-scoring game on Oct. 23? How many points will Oakland and Jacksonville put up in an important game for both teams? Is it worth betting over the 50.5 total when San Diego visits Atlanta in the Georgia Dome? 

NY Giants at Los Angeles
When:  Sunday, Oct. 23 at 9:30 am ET
Where: Twickenham Stadium, England
TV: NFL Network
Total: 44  

Analysis: Both of these teams can score points when in the right situation. The L.A. Rams’ defense has given up points when battling a decent quarterback. Tampa Bay’s Jameis Winston led the Bucs to 32 points in a 37 to 32 Rams’ win on Sept. 25. Then, on Oct. 16, the Rams allowed Matthew Stafford to lead Detroit to 28 points in a 31 to 28 Rams’ win.

The New York Giants should move the ball with regularity now that Eli Manning and Odell Beckham Jr. have finally gotten on the same page. Against the Baltimore Ravens, Odell caught 8 passes for 222 yards. He scored 2 touchdowns.

The Giants’ defense allows 266.8 passing yards per game on average. The Rams should be able to move the ball as well. I like over 44.

Pick: Over 44

Oakland at Jacksonville
When:  Sunday, Oct. 23 at 1:00 pm ET
Where: EverBank Field, Jacksonville, FL
Total: 48.5

Analysis: This game has over written…uh…all over it, right? Jacksonville’s defense gives up an average of over 25 points per game. Oakland’s offense averages 25.3 points per game while giving up over 27 points per game.

But there are a couple of problems with betting on the over in this match up. Oakland’s offense didn’t look all that great against Kansas City in their last when rushing for only 65 yards, passing for only 222, and scoring only 10 points. The other issue with betting on the Over is that Jacksonville held Chicago to 17 points in a 17 to 16 road win in their last.

It looks to me like Oakland and Jacksonville could play in a much tighter game than 48.5 points. I’m going under the total in this one.    

Pick: Under 48.5

San Diego at Atlanta
When:  Sunday, Oct. 23 at 4:05 pm ET
Where: Georgia Dome, Atlanta, GA
Odds: 50.5

Analysis: This is another game where over the total looks like a given. San Diego averages over 28 points per game while giving up an average of over 25 points per game. Atlanta averages 33.2 points per game while giving up over 27 points per.

The difference between this game and Oakland at Jacksonville is that neither team, the Chargers nor the Falcons, has shown an affinity to change how they play football. Melvin Gordon could have a huge game against Atlanta’s defense while QB Phillip Rivers goes nuts in the passing game.

QB Matt Ryan should be able to get things going with either RB Tevin Coleman or WR Julio Jones. This is particularly true even if San Diego commits to stopping rusher Devonta Freeman. Either way, both teams should score a ton of points in this match up.

Pick: Over 50.5

Posted in NFL