Expert NFL Picks Week 4 Baltimore Battles Cleveland in AFC North Showdown

NFL Week 9 Match-ups

The Patriots, Packers, Colts and Cleveland Browns are all looking for wins this coming weekend. Thanks to this insightful betting analysis on all four teams’ Week 9 contests, NFL gridiron gamblers everywhere are going to get the expert insight they’ll need in order to make a quartet of well-informed picks.

Let’s get started in the northeast where the Pats will host the inconsistent Pittsburgh Steelers.

Pittsburgh at New England
The New England Patriots are 7 point favorites over the Pittsburgh Steelers in the NF Week 9.
Starts: 11/03/2013 4:20PM
Gillette Stadium, One Patriot Place Foxborough
Boston, Massachusetts


The Pittsburgh Steelers (2-5 SU, 2-5 ATS) had their modest two-game winning streak snapped in its shocking 21-18 Week 8 loss to Oakland as a 2.5-point road favorite no less.

The New England Patriots (6-2 SU, 4-4 ATS) are coming off a concrete 27-17 Week 8 win over Miami while covering the spread as a 6.5-point home favorite.

Analysis: Somewhere in the neighborhood of 70% of NFL gamblers like the Patriots to cover the spread against the reeling Steelers, but something tells me the Steelers are the upset special pick of the week in this contest and their trends back up my theory.

Pittsburgh is 10-4 ATS in their last 14 road games against a team with a winning home record while the Patriots are 1-5 ATS in their last half-dozen games against their AFC counterparts. Last but not least, the Underdog in this series is 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings. Say it with me now… Pittsburgh covers.

The Pick: Pittsburgh +7 Points

Baltimore at Cleveland
The Baltimore Ravens are 2.5 point favorites over the Cleveland Browns in week 9.
Starts: 11/03/2013 4:20PM
FirstEnergy Stadium, 100 Alfred Lerner Way Cleveland
Cleveland, Ohio


The Baltimore Ravens (3-4 SU, 3-4 ATS) have lost two straight games while the Cleveland Browns (3-5 SU, 4-4 ATS) have dropped three in a row. Now, someone’s getting back in the win column while the loser is going to be left looking for more answers.

Baltimore is coming off a 19-16 loss to Pittsburgh on Oct. 20 as a 2.5-point road dog while Cleveland suffered a crushing 23-17 loss to Kansas City as a 7-point road dog on Sunday after seriously pushing the league’s only remaining unbeaten team.

Game Analysis: Unfortunately, the Browns are looking at another loss, if for no other reason than the fact that Baltimore is absolutely desperate, not to mention, well-rested.

The Ravens are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 meeting against the Browns and the road team in this AFC North divisional battle is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings. Baltimore wins what looks like a classic field goal game waiting to happen.

The Pick: Baltimore -2.5 Points

Indianapolis at Houston
The Indianapolis Colts are 2.5 road favorites over the Houston Texans on Sunday Night Football.
Starts: 11/03/2013 8:30PM
Reliant Stadium, Two Reliant Park Houston
Houston, Texas


The Indianapolis Colts (5-2 SU, 4-3 ATS) have won four of their last five games and handed the Denver Broncos their first loss of the season two weeks ago.

The Houston Texans (2-5 SU, 1-6 ATS) have lost five straight games and have named former backup Case Keenum as their new starter even though three-time pro bowler Matt Schaub is not injured any more.

Indianapolis recorded a convincing 39-33 win over Denver on Oct. 20 as a 6-point home underdog while Houston ‘s most recent loss was a heartbreaking 17-16 road loss to Kansas City as a 7-point road underdog.

Game Analysis: I smell trouble in this one for the Texans. The fact of the matter is that Indianapolis often looks like the best team in the AFC and one I fully expect to compete for the conference crown.

It’s also quite shocking to see Houston bench Schaub in favor of a guy that wasn’t good enough to get off the bench as the team’s third stringer and had to leapfrog backup T.J. Yates in order to get this job in the first place.

Houston is 1-4 ATS in its last five home games and the Colts are 4-0 ATS in their L/4 road games against a team with a losing home record. I like Andrew Luck to lead the Colts to a resounding victory in this one, much like Peyton Manning tormented the Texans for years.

The Pick: Indianapolis -1 Point

Chicago at Green Bay
The Green Bay Packers are 10.5 points favorites over their NFC North rivals, the Chicago Bears.
Starts: 11/04/2013 8:30PM
Lambeau Field 1265 Lombardi Ave.
Green Bay, Wisconsin


The Chicago Bears (4-3 SU, 1-5-1 ATS) have lost three of their last four games including their heartbreaking Week 7 45-41 loss to Washington as a 1-point road favorite. They will however, enter this contest coming off a bye week, so at least, they will be well-rested.

The Green Bay Packers (5-2 SU, 5-2 ATS) have ripped off four straight wins and appear to be firing on all cylinders as they get set for this NFC North divisional battle. Packers are coming off a commanding 44-31 win over Minnesota on Sunday and cashed in as a 7.5-point road favorite to move to 4-0 ATS over their last four games.

Game Analysis: I like Green Bay to keep their winning ways going against a Chicago Bears team that isn’t nearly as dangerous offensively without starting quarterback Jay Cutler.

Still, these NFC North divisional battles are generally hard-fought battles that can often go down to the wire. Having said that, I don’t see that happening this time around as Green Bay lays a huge, double-digit beating on the banged-up Bears.

The Bears are 0-4 ATS in their last four games against a team with a winning record while the Favorite in this longtime rivalry is a pristine 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. Back the Pack for the convincing win!

The Pick: Green Bay -11 Points

Posted in NFL