Why You Should Never Bet on the Super Bowl 50 Coin TossJosh Bailey
Super Bowl 50 week is upon us. The AFC Champion Denver Broncos are a 6-point underdog to win Super Bowl 50 to the NFC Champion Carolina Panthers. If you are betting the money line straight up then Carolina plays 100 on 250 while Denver pays 200 on 100.
But, those aren’t the only bets the football handicappers can make on the game. There are a ton of prop wagers that will be offered for Super Bowl 50. One of the most popular wagers is betting on the coin toss.
Why You Should Not Bet on the Super Bowl 50 Coin Toss
The coin toss gives the bettor a 50-50 chance. Those are better chances than betting red or black on a roulette wheel for a single spin. But, betting on the coin toss really isn’t that great of a wager. Keep reading to find out why the coin toss is a bad bet. I add a few prop wagers that football handicappers might want to consider wagering instead.
What: Super Bowl 50
Who: Carolina Panthers (15-1) vs Denver Broncos (12-4)
When: Sunday, February 7, 2015
Kickoff: 6:30 PM ET
Where: Santa Clara, CA
Stadium: Levi’s Stadium
Spread: Panthers -6
Moneyline: Carolina -250 vs Denver +200
Game Total: 45
Stream: CBS Sports
Listen: Carolina vs Denver
Why Betting On The Super Bowl 50 Coin Toss Is A Sucker Bet
- There’s no handicapping involved – How do you handicap a coin toss? It’s almost like playing the slot machines instead of betting on sports or horses. There is no handicapping involved, which means that any skills that you have, as an example, to determine which RB has the better game out of Ronnie Hillman or Jonathan Stewart goes out the window. Why bet on a 50% chance of winning when good handicapping skills could get you to 60% if not higher on the other prop bets?
- There’s a 50% chance that you’ll lose, meaning that there’s a 50% chance that you’re in the hole before the game even starts – If you’re anything like me, once you’re in the hole, there’s always the chance that you’ll chase. Plus, alcohol figures to be flowing before and during the game. Starting the game out in the hole and tipsy? That’s not a good combination when there’s going to be so many live bets being offered.
- There’s no underdog in the coin toss – One of the great ways of making money betting on sports is finding lines that don’t make sense. Maybe, one of the teams, like the Patriots in the AFC Championship Game, is offering too many points to win, much less cover, in a place where they’ve gone 2 and 6 straight up in the past 8 games. Since the coin toss is 50-50, there is no line that doesn’t make sense. You can’t search for an edge in the coin toss because, based on mathematics, there is no edge. You should only make wagers where you have an edge.
Instead of betting on the Super Bowl 50 coin toss, consider these props:
- Will there be a safety – Yes should be around +400 to +500. No will be around -650 to -750. No might even be -800. I’m going to consider betting yes that there will be a safety once the line is set. The reason why is because I won’t have to put up a lot of money in order to make a killing. So, the investment isn’t bad. There are also a couple of football reasons. First, Cam Newton hasn’t played a team that collapses the pocket as well as Denver’s front line. When Cam tries to run, he might have some trouble doing so. Second, Denver QB Peyton Manning is horribly slow. It’s doubtful that Peyton out runs any of Carolina’s defenders.
- Total made field goals – This prop could end up anywhere from 3.5 to 5.5. I’m probably going to be over as long as the total remains 3.5 to 5. Denver allows an average of 18.5 points per game. Denver’s red zone defense should be stout in Super Bowl 50. Carolina’s defense allows an average of 19.2 points per game. Carolina’s defense is stout in the red zone. I expect both defenses to turn this into a field goal game.