How Will The Weather Effect Your Super Bowl XLVIII Bet?

How Will The Weather Effect Your 2014 Super Bowl Bet?

The forecast for New Jersey this Sunday keeps improving so if you’re one of the gamblers that’s asking yourself “how will the weather effect your Super Bowl XLVIII bet” then I’ve got the answer – it shouldn’t. New Jersey is expecting a high of 44 and a low of 27 degrees Fahrenheit with a 20-percent chance of precipitation (i.e. light rain or snow) and mild winds of just six-or-eight miles per hour.

Super Bowl XLVIII
The Denver Broncos are 2 point favorites over the Seattle Seahawks in Super Bowl XLVIII.
Starts: 02/02/2014 6:30PM
MetLife Stadium, One MetLife Stadium Dr.
East Rutherford, New Jersey


That last part is important, because it isn’t the cold weather that stings Peyton Manning – it’s always been the wind. And honestly, what quarterback likes playing in the wind? Peyton Manning comes under fire more than most quarterbacks because he has a long list of games where he hasn’t performed admirably in bad weather, especially compared to other weather warriors like Tom Brady.

So it’s worth pointing out that Manning is just 2-8 ATS in the 10 coldest games of his career. In that same spectrum, he’s 0-5 SU in games that are below freezing and have winds exceeding 10 miles per hour. The problem with looking at these trends in a vacuum is that they include games from the early part of this century ranging from 2000-2013.

I’m not totally convinced that weather effects your 2014 Super Bowl bet at all. Manning is 37 years old with 17 seasons of NFL experience. He has seen it all, and played in every type of possible condition against every imaginable type of opponent. And this year’s Manning has been on an absolute warpath.

Want proof? Two of the games from that 10 game slate listed above were from this year and here are the results:

  • Peyton vs. Tennessee (13F, 5MPH) – 39-of-59, 397 yards, 4 TD, 0 INT
  • Peyton vs. New England (22F, 22MPH) – 19-of-36, 150 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT

Yup, even in the game where the winds were howling against New England, Manning had a fairly decent game. I mean, his team lost 31-34 after building a massive lead but he still managed to lead his team to three touchdowns. That was less of a Manning implosion and more of a Tom Brady comeback. But I can understand why people detract Manning in windy weather. In that same game, Brady went 34-of-50 for 344 yards and 3 touchdowns.

Picking apart specific sections of Manning’s career can also lead to specified numbers which don’t tell the whole story. If you want to know how the weather effects your Super Bowl XLVIII bet then just realize that Manning is 167-73 SU in his career during the regular season and has faced winds of 11 MPH on average. It’s an overblown metric.

The wind effects quarterbacks on both sides of the ball so if you’re wondering how the weather effects your Super Bowl XLVIII bet then you have to look at it like a two sided equation. Manning has the experience to overcome – or at least avoid – making bad throws in horrifying weather. Does Russell Wilson? I mean I have more faith in someone who has experience playing in all sorts of weather, and the Super Bowl, against another player who we’ve seen for just two years.

Beyond that, the weather changes. We saw it in the Seattle-New Orleans game in the wild card round. The weather was awful in the first half, and then completely manageable in the second. Every handicapper who made a pick was banking on the weather overwhelming the Saints throughout the game. And it did…until it stopped and Brees almost came back and won.

Weather can effect the game in any number of ways, but I also think that undersells the fact that if it stops for even a moment, Manning will be given the time to do some damage. And with weather reports offering pretty friendly conditions for any type of team playing in New York in February, I don’t think you should let the weather effect your 2014 Super Bowl bet in the slightest.

Posted in NFL