The first stage of the 2018 Tour de France starts at Noirmoutier-en-l’Île on Saturday. Who will win the largest free sporting event in the world? Will it be heavy favorite Chris Froome? Is there a smarter bet you should make? Who is the long shot to win the Tour de France? Let’s check out the odds first.
Odds & Picks to Win the Tour de France
- Chris Froome wins Tour de France +203
Does not win -243
- Richie Porter wins +420
Does not win -535
- Nairo Quintana wins +875
Does not win -1333
- Mikel Landa wins +975
Does not win -1475
- Vincenzo Nibali wins+1350
Does not win -2300
- Tom Dumoulin wins +1350
Does not win -2300
- Romain Bardet wins +1500
Does not win -3000
- Geraint Thomas wins +1700
Does not win -3400
- Jakob Fuglsang wins +1850
Does not win -3700
Tour de France Odds-On Favorite: Christopher Froome +203
The great Chris Froome headed in to last year’s Tour de France as a serious favorite to win the General Classification. He didn’t disappoint. After Geraint Thomas won the first Group Stage by taking Stage 1 overall, Froome dominated from there on out.
He won Group Stage 5 through 11 and Group Stage 14 through 21. The only Group Stage he yielded after 1 through 4 was Group Stage 12-13.
He’s won the General Classification at the Tour de France 4 straight times: 2013, 2015, 2015, and 2017. Based on those stats, some might believe that Froome is an overlay at +203 to take the GC at the 2018 Tour de France.
But, it’s difficult to back Froome at such low odds. I’ll look elsewhere.
Tour de France Smart Pick: Nairo Quintana +875
Quintana is one of the very best climbing riders in the world. He has been for some time, now. Nairo won the Tour of the Basque Country in 2013. He’s won the Tirreno-Adriatico twice, in 2015 and 2017. In 2016, Quintana won both the Volta a Catalunya and the Tour de Romandie.
If Nairo could put together his excellent climbing rides with a few other great rides during the 2018 Tour de France, he’ll have a shot at the General Classification. I’m not the only one who believes that because outside of Froome and Richie Porte, Quintana offers the lowest odds to win the 2018 Tour de France General Classification.
Tour de France Longshot Pick: Vincenzo Nibali +1350
Vincenzo Nibali has something that most riders at the 2018 Tour de France doesn’t, a General Classification yellow jersey victory. It happened in 2014. Most will say that the only reason Nibali won in 2014 was because Froome crashed out of the race.
Maybe, that’s the case. Still, his odds are awfully nice for a past winner who’s in the prime of his cycling career. Nibali’s worth a look at decent odds.