If there’s any useful UFC 172 betting tips I could hand out to my readers, it’s to ignore the hype machine’s loud and obnoxious noise. Is Glover really going to challenge Jones? Is Phil Davis as talented as he touts himself to be? Is former middleweight champ Luke Rockhold as unbeatable as he was in Strikeforce?
UFC 172 Betting Tips
Bet on Jon Jones -500 over Glover Teixeira +400
The problem with grading a championship fight where the champion looks virtually unbeatable is the hyperbole surrounding a fight. I’m trying my best to cut through the fat with my own UFC 172 betting tips, but it’s hard. The UFC would have you believe that Glover Teixeira is a devourer of worlds.
Glover lost his first fight in 2002 and his fourth fight ever in 2005. Since then, he’s been on a rampage in the mixed martial arts universe with an 18-fight win streak that’s put him at 22-2 SU in his career. His last two victories included a Knockout of the Knight over Ryan Bader and a Submission of the Night against James Te Huna. The guy is a war machine…but I’m just not sure he’s actually capable of beating up Jon Jones.
Everyone seems to think that Jones is vulnerable after his struggles against Alexander Gustafsson, but you have to keep in mind that the swede is one of the only guys in the UFC – and the division – that matches up well physically with Jones. To put it simply, Jones doesn’t have a definitive height and reach advantage against Gustafsson; that’s what makes it a more balanced affair when the two clashed.
Glover is 6-foot-2 with a 76 reach, meaning he’ll be surrendering a chasm to the wingspan of the 6-foot-4 Jones whose 84.5 reach is the stuff of legend. When Jones started his winning streak in the UFC, I often highlighted that his physical metrics were the reason to back him. Against Gustafsson his reach and height were basically on par. Against Glover, they’re alive and well.
The UFC is building up this fight really well. They definitely have me believing that Glover can step in to the octagon and give Jones a serious challenge. However, if you’re going to follow any of my UFC 172 betting tips, then don’t bite in to the hype. Jones is a conqueror and has bullied guys the size of Teixeira his entire career without issue. Glover won’t ever get close enough to do any damage to Jones, who has too much riding on this fight to enter the octagon scared.
I am excited for this fight but mostly because I love watching Jones get down to business. This will be a second round squash after Glover forces himself to over extend against the champion, who will realize that he literally and figuratively has the high ground in this fight after the first round ends. Expect a submission victory by the champ.
Anthony Johnson +170 over Phil Davis -200
At just 30 years of age, and after an insane career arc, Rumble Johnson is back in the UFC as a true light heavyweight. During his six fight exodus from the UFC, Rumble has been knocking opponents out all over the country. The fact that he’s being put in the cage against Phil Davis, a fighter with a near-perfect record, says as much about how the UFC sees Rumble as it does about his opponent.
While my UFC 172 betting tips advise you not to take Rumble lightly, it’s very difficult for me as a fight fan to encourage a bet against Phil Davis. Obviously, I don’t think he beat Lyoto Machida at UFC 163 last August. Nobody in their right mind would believe that. But there’s lot to like about Davis since he’s such a bubbly personality and a talented fighter.
The issue is that Davis might be a better barker than biter. Don’t believer me? Fine. Just watch Rumble do his thing. Davis may have tons of prove but might also lack the ability to prove anything against a properly motivated Anthony Johnson.
Tim Boetsch +550 over Luke Rockhold -800
Sure, Rockhold’s a 6-foot-3 former Strikeforce Middleweight Champion who’s pretty much a killing machine and a world champion Jiu-Jitsu fighter…but it’s Tim Boetsch! He’s everyone’s favorite underdog! The other big bouts on this card are as tight as a nailed coffin. This is the one fight where the odds are as wide as the grand canyon.
I don’t love Boetsch as a heavy play here, but as a flier with +550 odds? Why not? Betting against Luke Rockhold is not one of my greatest UFC 172 betting tips but with -800 odds on him, it’s hard to make money off the Brazilian so throw a chip at the underdog and pray for Boetsch.
(Seriously. Rockhold might actually murder him.)