This fight takes a veteran in the sport who still has so much to fight for and a young hard hitting guy who has learned by fighting through different promotions what it takes to win. Carlos Condit has fought some of the best fighters in the world, guys like St-Pierre, Hendricks, Nick Diaz and Kampman while Woodley has gone through his own big fights against guys like Hieron, Shields and Koscheck. Woodley has found his success more on the mat, he is very long and quick which gives him an advantage in grappling. Condit is the guy in my mind that can take as many hits as you want to give him, he has never been knocked out.
Carlos Condit is an experienced Brazilian Jiu-jitsu fighter that also feels very comfortable on the ground. The way he approaches his fights is by letting his opponent tier themselves out before unleashing all hell. Condit has lost 2 of his last three fights but in his defense it was to St-Pierre and Hendricks, two of the best. Condit has stepped into the octagon 36 times, he has won 29 fights with 13 by submission and 14 by knockout while only losing 7 times split between decision and sub.
Tyron Woodley is an ex-strike force champion who has been fighting his way up the ladder in the UFC for a potential title shot. The winner of this fight will get the chance to fight the winner of the Hendricks/Lawler fight for the belt. Woodley stands with a record of 12 wins and 2 loses but he has only had 3 UFC fights going 2-1 in those. As good as Woodley is on the ground he needs to master his defense on the ground, Condit will surprise him with take downs he didn’t know existed.
I have Condit –165 in this fight and the lack of experience at this level will be Woodley’s downfall, I do not think he will have what it takes to hang with Condit through all three rounds and I have Condit getting the submission early in the third round.