With a trip to the Round of 16 riding on the line, the USMNT is certainly packing plenty of value in the World Cup betting odds if you like the overachieving underdogs.
After upsetting talented Ghana 2-1 in its opener, the USMNT narrowly failed to duplicate their first round feat, falling just short of beating Portugal in what would turn out to be a 2-2 draw against Cristiano Ronaldo and company on Monday.
Now, the Americans will look to pull off their third straight stunner when they battle Thomas Müller and a gifted German team that has the look of a legitimate title contender and you can cash in big if you know who to bet on.
— Steven Goff (@SoccerInsider) June 23, 2014
USMNT Vs. Germany World Cup Group G Match Odds
USMNT (+½, +105)
Germany (-½ -125)
USMNT Vs. Germany World Cup Group G Match Moneyline
USMNT Vs. Germany World Cup Group G Match Odds Total
Over 2 (Even)
Under 2 (-120)
The talented folks over at FiveThirtyEight.com have done the hard work and provided us with the math for who will advance from to the Round of 16 from the Group of Death .
- Germany: 99.7% chance to advance.
- USMNT: 75.7% chance to advance.
- Ghana: 19.7% chance to advance.
- Portugal: 4.9% chance to advance.
Here is a brief list of all the scenarios that would allow the USMNT to clinch a spot in the round of 16.
Both Group G finales Thursday at noon ET #usmnt
— Steven Goff (@SoccerInsider) June 23, 2014
Simplest Scenarios for Group G
- Germany: Advance with win/draw vs. USA
- USMNT: Advance with win/draw vs. GER
- Portugal: Advance with win vs. GHA AND GER/USA do not tie, IF POR wins tiebreak with loser (see below)
- Ghana: Advance with win vs. POR AND GER/USA do not tie, IF GHA wins tiebreak with loser (see below)
Scenarios in which the USMNT can advance
- With a win or draw vs. Germany
- With a loss and Portugal-Ghana draw
- With a oss and win tiebreaker vs. Portugal-Ghana winner
Group Of Death Tiebreaker Scenarios
If the United States loses to Germany, Ghana would qualify instead of the U.S. if either match is decided by a margin of two goals or more. If the U.S. loses by one goal, Ghana would need to win by at least two goals or be involved in a higher-scoring one-goal win.
For example, a 1-0 score in both matches would allow the United States to advance on head-to-head. But, if the U.S. loses 1-0 to Germany, then Ghana would need to win 2-1 to qualify on goals scored.
To advance ahead of the U.S., Portugal will need a goal-difference swing of five (head-to-head is level). For example, Portugal would need to win 3-0 and U.S. loses 2-0, among other equivalent scorelines. The teams will draw lots if goal difference is identical (this scenario would play out with a 3-0 U.S. defeat and a 2-0 Portugal win, for example).
Should You Bet USMNT and Germany To Draw?
If the United States and Germany draw on Thursday, both will advance to the knockout round regardless of the result of Ghana and Portugal’s match. There have already been questions about how much attacking will occur in that match, as there’s precedent for German involvement in a mutually-assured advancement situation.
— Yahoo Soccer (@YahooSoccer) June 23, 2014
Back in 1982, West Germany was in the same group as Algeria, Austria and Chile. Algeria put itself in position to become the first team to reach the knockout round unless West Germany beat Austria by either one or two goals. If this scenario played out (which it did), then both European teams would advance to the knockout round.
After Germany took an early one-goal lead in the 10th minute of the match, both teams basically stopped playing one they realized they would both advance if the score remained the same for the remainder of the match. Both teams basically kicked the ball around the middle of the field for the remaining 80 minutes of the match (0 shots) to advance to the next round.
This farce of a match prompted FIFA to alter the format of the final match of the group stage to its current format ion which all four teams in every group now play their third and final matches simultaneously.
If you’re going to bet on the U.S. vs. Germany match, then you should know that German striker Thomas Muller is tied for the World Cup lead in goals scored with three and that Germany is ranked third in offense.
The U.S. Men are ranked 10th in scoring but have played absolutely outstanding soccer in two matches against teams that were both favored over the underrated Americans.
I love the Over 2½ goals for this match as I can easily see the final score being either 2-1 or even 3-1…unfortunately U.S. soccer fans…to Germany and Muller.